2018年1月31日 星期三

美國2018年1月消費者信心指數

美國2018年1月消費者信心指數上升至125.4,上個月為123.1。

消費者信心:民間機構發表的消費者信心指數有二個,一個是The Conference Board,另一是密西根大學,兩者十分類似,只是The Conference Board每月個公佈一次,密西根大學每月個公佈二次,皆反應消費者信心的未來預期,被認為是領先經濟指標。

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improved
30 Jan. 2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 125.4 (1985=100), up from 123.1 in December. The Present Situation Index decreased slightly, from 156.5 to 155.3, while the Expectations Index increased from 100.8 last month to 105.5 this month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 18.

“Consumer confidence improved in January after declining in December,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions decreased slightly, but remains at historically strong levels. Expectations improved, though consumers were somewhat ambivalent about their income prospects over the coming months, perhaps the result of some uncertainty regarding the impact of the tax plan. Overall, however, consumers remain quite confident that the solid pace of growth seen in late 2017 will continue into 2018.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was slightly less positive in December. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was mixed. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” decreased slightly from 35.8 percent to 34.9 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” increased slightly, from 11.7 percent to 12.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also mixed. The percentage of consumers claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 36.3 percent to 37.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased marginally, from 16.0 percent to 16.4 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved in January, following a sharp decline in December. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions to improve over the next six months increased marginally, from 21.6 percent to 22.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 9.0 percent to 9.8 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the job market was also less negative. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 19.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 15.9 percent to 11.8 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased from 22.7 percent to 20.4 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 9.0 percent to 7.7 percent.

下面是google的網頁翻譯:
隨著12月份的下降,諮商會消費者信心指數在1月份有所上升。該指數目前為125.4(1985年= 100),高於12月份的123.1。現狀指數從156.5小幅下滑至155.3,期望指數由上月的100.8上漲至本月的105.5。

全球領先的消費者購買和觀看的信息和分析提供商尼爾森(Nielsen)為會議委員會(The Conference Board)進行了一項基於概率設計隨機抽樣的每月消費者信心調查(Consumer ConfidenceSurvey®)。初步結果的截止日期是1月18日。

會議委員會經濟指標總監Lynn Franco表示:「消費者信心在12月份下降後有所好轉。消費者對現狀的評估略有下降,但仍處於歷史最高水平。雖然消費者對未來幾個月的收入前景有些矛盾,但也許是稅收計劃影響方面存在一些不確定性的結果,預期有所改善。然而,總的來說,消費者仍然相當確信2017年下半年的增長速度將持續到2018年。」

消費者對當前情況的評估在12月份略顯不樂觀。消費者對經營狀況的評估參差不齊。經營狀況「好」的比例從35.8%下降到34.9%,說經營狀況「差」的比例從11.7%略微上升到12.7%。消費者對勞動力市場的評估也參差不齊。要求工作的消費者比例從36.3%上升到37.6%,而要求工作的「難以獲得」的比例從16.0%上升到16.4%。

1月份消費者對短期前景的樂觀情緒有所好轉,繼12月份急劇下滑之後。消費者預期未來六個月經營狀況有所改善的百分比從21.6%上升至22.0%,而預期經營狀況惡化的消費者則從9.0%上升至9.8%。

消費者對就業市場的看法也不那麼消極。預計未來幾個月就業崗位比例大致維持在19.0%,而就業崗位較少的比例則從15.9%下降到11.8%。從短期收入的角度來看,有待改善的消費者比例從22.7%下降到20.4%,下降的比例也從9.0%下降到7.7%。

※有關指數說明和資料取得請參考:重要的景氣周期指標(看準市場脈動投機術)的那篇文章說明。