2018年3月28日 星期三

美國2018年3月消費者信心指數

美國2018年3月消費者信心指數下滑至127.7,上個月為130.0。

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declined in March
27 Mar. 2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in March, following an increase in February. The Index now stands at 127.7 (1985=100), down from 130.0 in February. The Present Situation Index decreased from 161.2 to 159.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 109.2 last month to 106.2 this month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 15.

“Consumer confidence declined moderately in March after reaching an 18-year high in February,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions declined slightly, with business conditions the primary reason for the moderation. Consumers’ short-term expectations also declined, including their outlook for the stock market, but overall expectations remain quite favorable. Despite the modest retreat in confidence, index levels remain historically high and suggest further strong growth in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions eased in March. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” increased from 36.5 percent to 37.9 percent, however those claiming business conditions are “bad” also increased, from 11.3 percent to 13.4 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was marginally more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 39.1 percent to 39.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 15.1 percent to 14.9 percent.

Consumers were moderately less optimistic about the short-term outlook in March. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 25.0 percent to 23.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 9.4 percent to 9.8 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the job market was also less positive. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 22.4 percent to 19.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 12.4 percent to 12.6 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased from 23.5 percent to 22.0 percent, however, the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 8.6 percent to 7.2 percent.

下面是google的網頁翻譯:
隨著2月份增加,諮商會消費者信心指數®在3月份下跌。該指數目前為127.7(1985年= 100),低於2月份的130.0。現狀指數從161.2下跌至159.9,而預期指數從上月的109.2下跌至本月的106.2。

Nielsen是全球領先的信息和分析供應商,圍繞消費者購買和觀看的數據,為概念設計隨機抽樣的每月消費者信心調查(Consumer ConfidenceSurvey®)進行。初步結果的截止日期是3月15日。

會議委員會經濟指標總監Lynn Franco表示:「3月份消費者信心在2月達到18年來的高位後溫和下跌。 消費者對當前狀況的評估略有下降,商業環境是緩和的主要原因。消費者的短期預期也有所下降,包括他們對股市的展望,但總體預期仍然相當有利。儘管信心略有回落,但指數水平仍處於歷史高位,並表明未來幾個月將進一步強勁增長。」

消費者對當前狀況的評估在3月份有所緩解。商業條件「好」的百分比從36.5%增加到37.9%,但聲稱商業條件「不好」的百分比也從11.3%增加到13.4%。消費者對勞動力市場的評估稍微有利。那些聲稱工作「充足」的人從39.1%增加到39.9%,而聲稱工作「難以獲得」的人從15.1%下降到14.9%。

消費者對3月份的短期前景持樂觀態度。預計未來六個月商業環境的消費者比例將從25.0%下降到23.0%,而那些預期商業環境惡化的消費者將從9.4%上升到9.8%。

消費者對就業市場的看法也不樂觀。預計未來幾個月就業崗位的比例從22.4%下降到19.1%,而預期就業崗位減少的比例從12.4%上升到12.6%。對於他們的短期收入前景,預期改善的消費者比例從23.5%下降到22.0%,但預計下降的比例也從8.6%下降到7.2%。

※有關指數說明和資料取得請參考:重要的景氣周期指標(看準市場脈動投機術)的那篇文章說明。