2018年5月30日 星期三

美國2018年5月消費者信心指數

美國2018年5月消費者信心指數上升至128.0,上個月為125.6。

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased in May
29 May. 2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 157.5 to 161.7, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.3 last month to 105.6 this month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 16.

“Consumer confidence increased in May after a modest decline in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased to a 17-year high (March 2001, 167.5), suggesting that the level of economic growth in Q2 is likely to have improved from Q1. Consumers’ short-term expectations improved modestly, suggesting that the pace of growth over the coming months is not likely to gain any significant momentum. Overall, confidence levels remain at historically strong levels and should continue to support solid consumer spending in the near-term.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in May. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 34.8 percent to 38.4 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 12.3 percent to 12.0 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was somewhat mixed. The percentage of consumers stating jobs are “plentiful” improved from 38.2 percent to 42.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also increased, from 15.5 percent to 15.8 percent.

Consumers were modestly more positive about the short-term outlook in May. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 23.6 percent to 23.1 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen also decreased, from 9.8 percent to 8.3 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 18.6 percent to 19.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs also increased, from 13.2 percent to 13.9 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined, from 21.8 percent to 21.3 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 7.9 percent to 8.2 percent.

下面是google的網頁翻譯:
諮商會消費者信心指數®在5月份有所上升,此前在4月略有下降(下調後)。該指數目前為128.0(1985年= 100),高於4月份的125.6。現狀指數從157.5上漲至161.7,而預期指數從上月的104.3上漲至本月的105.6。

Nielsen是全球領先的信息和分析供應商,圍繞消費者購買和觀看的數據,為概念設計隨機抽樣的每月消費者信心調查(Consumer ConfidenceSurvey®)進行。初步結果的截止日期是5月16日。

「五月份消費者信心在4月份溫和下滑後有所上升」,大會董事會經濟指標總監Lynn Franco表示:「消費者對當前狀況的評估增至17年來最高(2001年3月,167.5),這表明第二季度的經濟增長水平可能比第一季度有所改善。消費者的短期預期略有改善,表明未來幾個月的增長速度不可能獲得任何顯著的增長動力。總體而言,信心水平保持在歷史最高水平,並將在短期內繼續支持穩固的消費支出。」

5月份消費者對當前狀況的評估有所改善。那些聲稱商業條件「好」的人從34.8%上升到38.4%,而聲稱經營狀況「壞」的人則從12.3%下降到12.0%。消費者對勞動力市場的評估有些參差不齊。表示工作「消費」的消費者比例從38.2%提高到42.4%,而聲稱工作「難以獲得」的消費者也從15.5%增加到15.8%。

消費者對5月份的短期前景略為樂觀。預計未來六個月商業環境的消費者比例將從23.6%下降到23.1%,而預期商業環境將惡化的消費者比例也將從9.8%下降到8.3%。

消費者對勞動力市場的看法參差不齊。預計未來幾個月就業崗位的比例從18.6%增加到19.7%,而預期就業崗位減少的比例也從13.2%增加到13.9%。對於他們的短期收入前景,預計改善的消費者比例從21.8%下降到21.3%,而預期下降的比例則從7.9%上升到8.2%。

※有關指數說明和資料取得請參考:重要的景氣周期指標(看準市場脈動投機術)的那篇文章說明。