2020年1月29日 星期三

美國2020年1月消費者信心指數

美國2020年1月消費者信心指數上升至131.6,上個月為128.2 。

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased in January
28 Jan. 2020

Consumers Will Continue to Drive Growth and Prevent Economy from Slowing in Early 2020
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a moderate increase in December. The Index now stands at 131.6 (1985=100), up from 128.2 (an upward revision) in December. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.5 to 175.3. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 100.0 last month to 102.5 this month.

“Consumer confidence increased in January, following a moderate advance in December, driven primarily by a more positive assessment of the current job market and increased optimism about future job prospects,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director, Economic Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Optimism about the labor market should continue to support confidence in the short-term and, as a result, consumers will continue driving growth and prevent the economy from slowing in early 2020.”

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 15.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in January. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 39.0 percent to 40.8 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased, from 11.0 percent to 10.4 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market also improved. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 46.5 percent to 49.0 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined, from 13.0 percent to 11.6 percent.
Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months was virtually unchanged at 18.8 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined from 8.8 percent to 8.4 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 15.5 percent to 17.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 13.9 percent to 13.4 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 22.7 percent to 22.0 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease was virtually unchanged at 7.7 percent.

下面是google的網頁翻譯:
2020年初,消費者將繼續推動增長並防止經濟放緩,在12月份小幅增長之後,1月份的會議委員會消費者信心指數®有所提高。該指數目前為131.6(1985 = 100),高於12月的128.2(向上修正)。根據消費者對當前商業和勞動力市場狀況的評估,現狀指數從170.5增加到175.3。基於消費者對收入,商業和勞動力市場狀況的短期前景的預期指數從上個月的100.0增加到本月的102.5。

會議委員會經濟指標高級主管Lynn Franco表示:「繼12月的適度增長之後,1月份的消費者信心有所增加,這主要是由於對當前就業市場的評估更加積極,並對未來的就業前景更加樂觀。對勞動力市場的樂觀情緒應繼續在短期內支持人們的信心,因此,消費者將繼續推動增長並防止經濟在2020年初放緩。」

尼爾森(The Nielsen)為會議委員會(Conference Board)進行了每月一次的消費者信心調查(Consumer ConfidenceSurvey®),該調查是由概率設計隨機抽樣得出的,尼爾森是一家圍繞消費者購買和觀看商品的信息和分析的全球領先提供商。初步結果的截止日期是1月15日。

消費者對當前情況的評估在1月份有所改善。那些聲稱業務狀況為「好」的人從39.0%增加到40.8%,而那些聲稱業務狀況為「不好」的人從11.0%下降到10.4%。消費者對就業市場的評價也有所提高。那些說工作「很多」的人從46.5%增加到49.0%,而那些說工作「很難得到」的人從13.0%下降到11.6%。

消費者也對短期前景更為樂觀。預期商業狀況將在未來六個月內改善的消費者百分比幾乎沒有變化,仍為18.8%,而預期商業狀況將惡化的消費者百分比從8.8%下降至8.4%。

消費者對勞動力市場的看法更為樂觀。預期未來幾個月會有更多工作的比例從15.5%增加到17.2%,而那些預期減少工作的比例從13.9%下降到13.4%。關於他們的短期收入前景,預期增長的消費者比例從22.7%下降到22.0%,而預期下降的比例幾乎不變,為7.7%。

※有關指數說明和資料取得請參考:重要的景氣周期指標(看準市場脈動投機術)的那篇文章說明。